APPENDIX 2
MEDIUM TERM FINANCIAL STRATEGY TABLES
Core Planning Assumptions
The table below sets out the core planning assumptions included in the MTFS projections:
|
|
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
2027/28 |
2028/29 |
2029/30 |
|
Pay inflation and pay related matters: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Provision for pay award |
2.75% |
2.75% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
- Employers pension contribution rate change** |
0.00% |
-4.90% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
General inflation: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
- Inflation on social care third party payments |
3.00% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
- Inflation on non-pay expenditure |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
1.00% - 3.00% |
|
- Inflation on waste PFI |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
3.50% |
|
- Inflation on income |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
- Inflation on parking income |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
- Inflation on penalty charge notices |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
Resources: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change to Revenue Support Grant (RSG) |
1.65% |
1.63% |
1.64% |
1.98% |
1.98% |
|
Business rates poundage inflation uplift |
1.65% |
1.63% |
1.64% |
1.98% |
1.98% |
|
Assumed council tax threshold increase |
2.99% |
2.99% |
2.99% |
2.99% |
2.99% |
|
Adult Social Care Precept |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
2.00% |
|
Council Tax Base |
1.50%* |
0.87% |
0.86% |
0.61% |
0.61% |
*Included the introduction of Second Homes Premium which is equivalent to a 0.9% increase in the tax base
**The Employer Pension rate will reduce from 19.80% to 14.90% from 1st April 2026 for three years
Summary of MTFS projections
The table below sets out the savings /budget gap, taking into account the anticipated expenditure over the MTFS period and the funding resources available:
|
Medium Term Financial Strategy 2026 to 2030 |
2026/27 |
2027/28 |
2028/29 |
2029/30 |
|
£m |
£m |
£m |
£m |
|
|
Net Budget Requirement B/Fwd |
264.819 |
281.740 |
295.585 |
309.843 |
|
Remove net one off short term funding and expenditure |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Net Budget Requirement B/Fwd |
264.819 |
281.740 |
295.585 |
309.843 |
|
Standard Pay and Inflation – Expenditure |
13.137 |
12.987 |
13.303 |
13.667 |
|
Standard Inflation - Income |
(3.446) |
(3.550) |
(3.112) |
(3.189) |
|
Demographic and inflationary pressures in Adult Social Care including Adult Learning Disabilities |
1.285 |
9.495 |
9.724 |
10.120 |
|
Demographic and inflationary pressures for Children’s disability, Children in Care, and Care Leavers |
2.595 |
1.620 |
1.771 |
1.396 |
|
Temporary Accommodation and Rough Sleepers - cost and demand pressures |
11.106 |
1.100 |
1.762 |
1.650 |
|
Home to School Transport - cost and demand pressures |
1.285 |
0.670 |
0.738 |
0.809 |
|
Estimated loss of funding from Fair Funding Reform |
6.000 |
2.500 |
6.000 |
0.000 |
|
Estimated loss of other grant income |
0.700 |
4.183 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Income Pressure: New England House |
1.200 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Housing Benefit Subsidy Shortfall |
2.400 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
All other pressures across council services |
7.373 |
5.564 |
5.117 |
5.686 |
|
Commitment - Change in contributions to/from reserves |
3.015 |
(1.125) |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Commitment - Change in financing Costs |
0.913 |
1.618 |
0.620 |
(0.172) |
|
Commitment - Pay award 2025/26 above 2.75% inflation assumption |
0.827 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Commitment – Reduction in Employer Pension contribution rate |
(6.920) |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Commitment - impact of previous decisions, grant changes and assumptions |
0.377 |
1.803 |
0.703 |
1.396 |
|
Budget Gap (Savings Requirement) |
(24.926) |
(23.020) |
(22.368) |
(16.344) |
|
Budget Requirement C/Fwd |
281.740 |
295.585 |
309.843 |
324.862 |
|
Funded by:* |
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue Support Grant |
8.932 |
9.078 |
9.258 |
9.441 |
|
Locally retained Business Rates |
63.507 |
64.862 |
66.468 |
68.114 |
|
Collection Fund position |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Council Tax including Adult Social Care Precept |
209.301 |
221.645 |
234.117 |
247.307 |
|
Total Funding |
281.740 |
295.585 |
309.843 |
324.862 |
*Note – the presentation of resources will change considerably within the February report due to the changes expected from the Fair Funding review and the consolidation of a number of funding streams into Revenue Support Grant